Welcome to the new subscribers that have joined us in the last week. The aim of this newsletter is to help you navigate the world of crypto. There’s an incredible amount of information out there so we try to distil it into the things you MUST know each week, covering both macro and crypto.
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Onto the newsletter. Here’s what you’re getting this week:
Macro Update: Our latest view on the macro and its impact on crypto markets.
Crypto Native News: Tether partners with Rumble to promote USAT, Samsung and Coinbase partner to give 75 million Galaxy device owners in the U.S. access to the exchange’s priority trading service, SG Forge integrates euro and dollar stablecoins with Uniswap, Stripe launches a stablecoin issuance platform.
Institutional Corner: SEC and CFTC say they will work more closely together beginning with crypto markets, CME to expand to 24/7 cryptocurrency futures and options trading, Kazakhstan launches its first crypto reserve.
Charts of the Week: $17 billion of USDT sent wallet to wallet each day, total market capitalisation of stablecoins has surpassed $300 billion for the first time in history.
Top Jobs in Crypto: Featuring Blockchain.com, Kraken, Midas, BitGo, Crypto.com, zerohash and B2C2.
Macro Update
This is where we connect the dots between macro and crypto.
Fiat Fracture
Last week we signed off saying that we expect the crypto bull market to accelerate in Q4 and certainly, Bitcoin came sprinting out of the blocks, rallying over 10% on the week and leading the broader digital asset complex higher 🚀
The macro, as we’ve been highlighting, has been forming incredibly strong tailwinds for Bitcoin and broader risk assets with a global rate cutting cycle amidst a sanguine economic backdrop, fiscal pumping, rising global liquidity and a dollar downtrend helping ease global financial conditions.
Yet Bitcoin and wider crypto has chopped in a frustrating, consolidatory range, digesting a lot of “whale supply” despite continued strong inflows via the ETF’s and digital asset treasury companies (DAT’s.) The rebuilding of the Treasury General Account post the debt ceiling lift, additionally weakening the liquidity pulse that crypto remains hyper sensitive to.
We then tested towards the lower end of the Q3 ranges with liquidity challenged further into quarter end and we thought this past week might require a little more chop as crypto recovers from that liquidity hangover. However, markets wasted little time in front running a seasonally strong Q4, with perhaps a US government shut down providing the impetus.
Bitcoin’s reassuring predictability…
The continued political instability in the US acts to highlight the stable predictability of the Bitcoin network as a non-sovereign, decentralised asset which never shuts down. Indeed, as the team at FRNT Financial highlighted this week, Bitcoin’s growing and dispersed hash rate is translating into a more distributed and diverse network, increasing the assets safe haven attributes.
Whilst Bitcoin remains very much a high beta risk asset, as we’ve stated before, it also covers both the far left and far right tails of the risk distribution. Acting as the ultimate, high beta risk-on asset in response to the perpetual flow of monetary liquidity into the financial system (the right tail) but then as the ultimate hedge against the failure of existing economic and political structures (the left tail.)
The government shutdown is another reminder of both the fragility at the core of the dollar based system as well as the unsustainable nature of the fiat system that requires ever more debt. This is periodically met with weak attempts to cut spending, but politically is unpalatable and for politicians that care only about re-election with little incentive to think about the longer term benefits of fiscal rectitude, they hold one-another to ransom until they all succumb to more spending, however that gets allocated across competing priorities.
Labour market softness…
One practical implication of a government shutdown is that we get a blackout of official government data. Hence this week, there was no release of the vaunted Non Farm Payrolls data. Given the recent FOMC which made a “risk management cut” in response to a slowing labour market, for us the lack of official data likely reinforces the expected path to cut rates at the next 2 meetings. “Risk management” would dictate to continue with the cautious path of cuts in the absence of new data.
Of the data we did receive on the labour market, reason for caution persists. The JOLTS numbers highlighted the soft underbelly of the US labour market with new hires falling sharply, down 114k to 5.12mio whilst the quit rate (a sign of labour market confidence and mobility) also fell below 2% to 1.9%, a level infrequently seen. Hiring and quit rates are now lower than they were pre-pandemic, suggesting a looser labour market. The ADP employment numbers also reinforced the weakening trend, showing the economy lost 32k jobs in September Vs expectations of 51k being added. Rate cuts then remain very much on the table ✅
The soft data alongside the uncertainty over the US shut down saw US yields and the dollar drifting lower, which in turn supported risk assets in the move higher. Stocks continuing to post more record gains, with the “growthy” tech sector outperforming “value.”
Oil was also interesting this week, falling over 7% as OPEC+ signalled it will boost production again in November. Lower oil is another input to easing global liquidity given the central role it plays in global manufacturing. Importantly too, lower oil pulls break even inflation expectations lower which in turn pulls US yields lower.
This is all reinforcing an easing in financial conditions and supportive of the continued melt-up that we see in Q4.
Debasement Trade…
At the core of our writing over the past 139 episodes of Connecting the Dots and feeding our long term bullish view on Bitcoin and all “hard assets” has been the slow, unavoidable, persistent debasement of fiat currency. There is no escaping the need to print ever larger deficits to sustain growth and those deficits require monetisation and at an exponentially increasing rate. Fiat currency is ultimately the escape valve.
This week, even JP Morgan have FINALLY understood this core principal that drives markets noting that this “debasement trade” is far from a passing trend, with gold and Bitcoin gaining structural importance in investor portfolios and that search to hedge against debasement is driving flows into assets that are causing historical, fundamental correlations to break down.
We think it’s hard to overstate the important cross-roads we’re at currently. We’ve hit an inflection point whereby fiscal deficits need to grow at an accelerating rate to maintain growth and fiscal repression required to keep yields contained and maintain the veil of stability and market credibility. Donald Trump this week reiterated their determination to “run it hot” by emphasising “you grow your way out of debt” and floating the idea of handing out more stimulus checks in the region of $1-2k. This is why we remain bullish way into next year as the candy will be handed out and markets pumped into the mid-terms.
Gold and Bitcoin are indeed gaining structural importance in investor portfolios to hedge against debasement. Yet “debasement” probably understates the fracture that is currently occurring in the dollar and wider fiat currencies.
Those calling the top or trying to understand markets from a valuation viewpoint still don’t understand that it’s the denominator that is falling sharply and if asset performance is measured in gold terms, it more accurately reflects the underlying “fundamentals” of the economy and markets.
Gold and Bitcoin are flashing a warning sign that the system is failing. As @_The_Prophet_ articulated so brilliantly on X; “This isn’t a normal market cycle. It’s the unit-of-account transition phase. And almost no one is positioned for it because they’re still measuring their “returns” in the wrong yardstick.”
However bullish Bitcoin you are into Q4, you’re likely not bullish enough.
Native News
Key news from the crypto native space this week.
Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin issuer, said this week that is has partnered with video platform Rumble to promote its newly launched U.S.-regulated stablecoin, USAT. CEO Paolo Ardoino said Rumble’s 51 million monthly active users will help drive the adoption of the token. Later this year, Rumble looks to release a crypto wallet that supports USAT and other tokens. The partnership is a significant move in Tether’s return to the American market. Tether even invested $775 million in Rumble in 2024, a 48% stake. Due to a U.S. regulation under the Genius Act, USAT was created specifically in accordance with the regulations. The bill-signed by US President Donald Trump in July-laid out a federal framework for dollar-backed stablecoins.
Samsung and Coinbase announced that they have partnered to give 75 million Galaxy device owners in the U.S. access to the exchange’s priority trading service. The Samsung Wallet will allow Galaxy owners access to the Coinbase One service, which includes zero trading fees and increased staking rewards. It means users can explore crypto without downloading a separate app or moving funds across platforms. Samsung Pay is also being linked to Coinbase accounts, allowing Galaxy owners to make payments tied to their holdings. As such, crypto tools will be available in the same place phone users already store payment cards, transit passes and IDs. While the rollout starts in the U.S., Samsung and Coinbase plan to expand the program to international markets over the coming months.
SG Forge, the digital asset arm of Soc Gen, has integrated its euro and dollar stablecoins with Uniswap, the largest decentralised exchange and Morpho, the second-biggest lending protocol. The bank’s institutional customers will be able to swap between the USDCV and EURCV stablecoins and other crypto assets on Uniswap, then lend and borrow against them through vaults on Morpho.
Payments company Stripe unveiled a stablecoin issuance platform and AI commerce tools at its New York showcase on Tuesday. The stablecoin issuance platform called Open Issuance, will allow firms to create custom stablecoins with minimal coding, include AI commerce tools, integrate digital dollars and artificial intelligence into online transactions. Open Issuance, underpinned by stablecoin infrastructure platform Bridge that Stripe acquired for $1.1 billion last year, enables firms to launch their own stablecoins, minting and redeeming tokens with just a few lines of code. Crypto wallet provider Phantom’s CASH token will be the first to be issued through the protocol, with Hyperliquid’s USDH and MetaMask’s mUSD also being added.
Institutional Corner
Top stories from the big institutions
On Monday, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said Monday they will work more closely together, beginning with crypto markets. The pledge came after a joint regulatory roundtable in Washington, D.C.. SEC Chain Paul Atkins said in prepared remarks “For too long, the SEC and CFTC have operated in parallel lanes, too often in conflict with one another, leaving the American public to bear the costs of duplication, delay, and uncertainty. That era is behind us. We are charting a new course, one that will solidify America’s position as the world’s financial leader.” Read the full announcement HERE.
CME Group announced that its cryptocurrency futures and options will be available to trade 24 hours a day, seven days a week beginning in early 2026, pending regulatory review. Tim McCourt, Global Head of Equities, FX and Alternative Products at CME Group said “While not all markets lend themselves to operating 24/7, client demand for around-the-clock cryptocurrency trading has grown as market participants need to manage their risk every day of the week. Ensuring that our regulated cryptocurrency markets are always on will enable clients to trade with confidence at any time.” Beginning in early 2026, CME Group cryptocurrency futures and options will trade continuously on CME Globex with at least a two-hour weekly maintenance period over the weekend. All holiday or weekend trading from Friday evening through Sunday evening will have a trade date of the following business day, with clearing, settlement and regulatory reporting processed the following business day as well. Read the full release from CME HERE.
Kazakhstan has launched its first crypto reserve, Alem Crypto Fund, established by the Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development and managed by Qazaqstan Venture Group within the AIFC framework. The fund aims to make long-term digital asset investments and build strategic reserves, with potential to evolve into a national reserve tool. Its strategic partner is Binance Kazakhstan, and the first investment was made in BNB. Read the full release HERE.
Charts of the Week
Because charts are just as important as macro.
$17 billion of USDT sent wallet to wallet each day, up 130x since 2020!
According to DeFiLlama data, the total market capitalisation of stablecoins has surpassed $300 billion for the first time in history. USDT accounts for 58.44% at $176.256 billion; USDC exceeds $74 billion; and the third-largest yield-bearing stablecoin, USDe, stands at $14.83 billion.
Top Jobs in Crypto
Well, we all want to work in Crypto don’t we. Here’s a bit of help on your job search!
OTC Crypto Trader at Blockchain.com
Senior Manager, Private Clients at Kraken
Institutional Sales Specialist at BitGo
Product Manager, Card at Crypto.com
Director of Enterprise Sales, Brokerage at zerohash
Junior Trader / Graduate Trader at B2C2
DISCLAIMER: The content in this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Crypto markets are volatile, please be careful and do your own research.
Great insights! Especially because BTC reaches new ATH 2 days in a row 🚀