We’re back after a 2 week summer break. Welcome to the new subscribers that have joined us over the last couple of weeks. The aim of this newsletter is to help you navigate the world of crypto. There’s an incredible amount of information out there so we try to distil it into the things you MUST know each week, covering both macro and crypto.
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Onto the newsletter. Here’s what you’re getting this week:
Macro Update: Our latest view on the macro and its impact on crypto markets.
Crypto Native News: Avalanche to launch 2 US digital asset treasury companies, VanEck to file for Hyperliquid ETF/ETPs, Forward Industries closes a $1.65 billion private investment in public equity deal.
Institutional Corner: BlackRock exploring bringing ETF’s onto public blockchains, Vietnam launches a five-year pilot program introducing strict requirements for the crypto industry.
Charts of the Week: Strategy holds 3% of BTC supply, August exchange volume tops $1.8 trillion, Ethereum spot CEX volume surpasses BTC for the first time in 5 years.
Top Jobs in Crypto: Featuring Blockchain.com, Keyrock, Ledger, Swift, Aave Labs, BitGo, Kraken and FCA.
Macro Update
This is where we connect the dots between macro and crypto.
Easy Does It
Last week we highlighted the powerful macro tailwinds that we expected to drive risk higher as US yields broke lower in response to the soft labour market data, with the resumption of the dollar downtrend providing rocket fuel to our markets. Indeed those trends continued this week and drove the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new record highs 🎉
Bitcoin, having lagged recent risk moves, digesting supply, alongside ETH and the wider alt space consolidating post a strong Jul/Aug, finally started to catch up and succumb to these positive, cross-asset macro drivers. For a market that we believe to be underpositioned risk into a supposedly “seasonally weak” September, pain for this market remains to the upside and we still see explosive topside gains ahead, especially in the crypto space.
On the data front, our “Goldilocks” characterisation of this market - softening, not collapsing US growth with sticky, not accelerating inflation - was reinforced this week with some soft inflation data.
Fed behind the curve…
Whilst the CPI data rose from 2.7% to 2.9% YoY as expected, with core inflation flat at 3.1%, it was the more “forward looking” Producer Price Inflation (PPI) data that eased some of the recent inflation fears. Headline prices unexpectedly decelerated to 2.6% YoY from 3.1% prior. Whilst the Fed have implicitly expressed more comfort with inflation relative to the labour market, the softer PPI saw markets continue to price in more easing from the Fed, with 3 cuts now priced for the rest of 2025. Initial jobless claims meanwhile printed 263k for the week, the highest level since October 2021.
The path then for the Fed to cut rates remains clearer and perhaps quite importantly as it relates to “risk” with questions around Fed independence, the Fed can cut without that independence being called into question. The BLS’s large negative jobs revisions released this week, showing 911k fewer jobs created in the one year period ended March 2025, certainly reframes the debate within the Fed who surely would have already cut by now had they known the true state of the labour market. Indeed we think there’s a higher than the market 10% probability that the Fed cut 50bps on Wednesday to provide some “insurance” for a Fed that has perhaps fallen behind the curve.
We remain then in a global rate cutting cycle and the most important central bank of all, the Fed, who have been on hold for the past 9 months, is now set to continue and accelerate their rate cutting cycle.
Global macro supportive…
Elsewhere, there was little else to really capture our attention. The ECB held rates as expected at 2% and they feel comfortable with monetary policy for now with inflation at target (we expect they’ll need to cut further as China continues to weigh on the global manufacturing cycle.) The announcement in Japan that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba intends to resign raised the spectre that fiscal policy will become looser in Japan and monetary policy will be kept on hold for longer, driving the Nikkei to new record highs. In China meanwhile, the PPI index remained in deflation territory at -2.9% marking 35 months of continuous deflation, whilst CPI turned negative for the first time in 3 months, falling 0.4% YoY. Expect continued stimulus to flow out of China and for Chinese deflation to anchor global inflation.
All in all, it’s a very sanguine macro backdrop characterised by easier monetary policy, rising global liquidity, a weaker dollar and US bond yields breaking lower across the curve. This move lower in US bond yields has also seen the MOVE Index (a measure of US treasury volatility) fall to 73.37 its lowest levels since early 2022. This is important as it relates to liquidity as reduced treasury bond volatility reduces the collateral haircut required for repo lending, facilitating more risk taking allowing more money to flow into markets.
Sentiment also remains quite bearish and the market is underpositioned risk and will be forced to chase these moves higher.
All eyes on the Fed next week but ignore the noise and volatility that brings. Easier rates, rising liquidity and a weaker dollar are all combining to send us into a risk melt up over the coming months. Bitcoin and the crypto complex will re-establish their high beta outperformance. No need to over-complicate this one.
Native News
Key news from the crypto native space this week.
According to the Financial Times, Avalanche Foundation is in talks with investors to establish two US “digital asset treasury” companies that aim to raise $1 billion to purchase millions of AVAX tokens at a discount. The first company, led by Hivemind Capital, seeks to raise up to $500 million through a Nasdaq-listed firm. The second initiative involves a $500 million special purpose acquisition company launched by Dragonfly Capital. Crypto investor and former White House press secretary Anthony Scaramucci is serving as an advisor to this venture. The structure would allow the treasury companies to buy AVAX tokens at discounted prices while providing the Avalanche Foundation with significant capital infusion through US-based investment vehicles.
According to Blockworks, VanEck plans to file for a Hyperliquid spot staking ETF in the US and an exchange-traded product in Europe. HYPE would become the youngest token to earn an ETF filing from the crypto-friendly investment management firm, which currently offers bitcoin and ether ETFs among other crypto funds. VanEck digital assets products director Kyle Dacruz said “VanEck finds Hyperliquid to be an attractive ETF candidate because it has “plenty of demand” but does not currently trade on major US crypto exchanges like Coinbase. A HYPE staking ETF would give US investors better access to the token — and perhaps nudge exchanges to list the token.” The firm’s Hyperliquid products would depend on regulatory approval, although 21Shares successfully launched a European Hyperliquid ETP in August.
Nasdaq-listed Forward Industries (FORD) said on Thursday that it has closed a $1.65 billion private investment in public equity deal to build out corporate crypto treasury centred on Solana. The cash and stablecoin commitments, led by Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto and Multicoin Capital, will fund the company’s plan to anchor its balance sheet in Solana’s native token, SOL. The three lead investors contributed more than $300 million, joined by firms including Bitwise Asset Management, Borderless Capital and SkyBridge Capital, as well as several crypto founders and angel investors. Multicoin co-founder Kyle Samani has been appointed chairman of the board, while Galaxy’s Chris Ferraro and Jump Crypto’s Saurabh Sharma will serve as observers.
Institutional Corner
Top stories from the big institutions
According to news reports this week, BlackRock is exploring how to bring exchange-traded funds (ETFs) onto public blockchains. The asset manager is said to be weighing tokenising funds tied to real-world assets such as stocks, though any rollout would depend on regulatory approval. Tokenising ETFs would represent a deeper step into blockchain-based financial products. In practice, it would mean that shares of the funds — traditionally traded on stock exchanges during market hours — could be issued and transacted as tokens on chain. They could also be traded around the clock, rather than only during exchange hours.
Vietnam, ranked among the top countries worldwide for cryptocurrency adoption, is launching a five-year pilot program introducing strict requirements for the crypto industry. Vietnam’s Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc signed a resolution enforcing a framework establishing rules for trading and issuance of crypto assets. Taking effect immediately, the pilot requires crypto transactions — from issuance to trading and payments — to be carried out in Vietnamese dong. The resolution also specifies that issuers must be Vietnamese enterprises, registered as either limited liability companies or joint stock companies under the Law on Enterprises. The resolution also specifies that issuers must be Vietnamese enterprises, registered as either limited liability companies or joint stock companies under the Law on Enterprises. The pilot establishes restrictions on the backing of crypto assets, requiring that they be issued exclusively on the basis of real assets. However, issuance of assets backed with fiat currencies and securities is not allowed.
Charts of the Week
Because charts are just as important as macro.
Strategy now holds 3% of the total Bitcoin supply.
Crypto exchange volume has topped $1.8 trillion in August.
Ethereum CEX spot volume surpassed BTC for the first time in at least 5 years.
Top Jobs in Crypto
Well, we all want to work in Crypto don’t we. Here’s a bit of help on your job search!
OTC Crypto Trader at Blockchain.com
Options Trader - Digital Asset Market Making at Keyrock
Wallet Operations Team Lead at Ledger
Digital Assets Innovation Lead at Swift
Director, Business Development at Aave Labs
Business Development Representative at BitGo
Lead Product Marketing Manager, OTC & Prime at Kraken
Digital Assets Policy Adviser at FCA
DISCLAIMER: The content in this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Crypto markets are volatile, please be careful and do your own research.